Simulation Lab

Policy scenario engine

Test how adjustments in debt service reprioritization, disease burden, workforce expansion, vaccination, inflation, and donor funding shifts may change coverage, resilience, and financial protection.

Country

Scenario title

Inflation %

Donor funding shift %

Debt redirected to PHC %

Disease burden factor %

Vaccination boost %

Workforce increase %

Coverage

63.2%

Resilience

73.4

Budget pool

$31.9B

Debt service

12.3%

Baseline vs scenario outcomes

Scenario balance radar

Cluster allocation view

Executive comparison

Metric	Baseline	Scenario
Coverage	60.4%	63.2%
Resilience	70.8	73.4
Donor dependency	18.2%	19.3%
Per capita spending	$140.00	$142.59
Budget pool	$31.2B	$31.9B
Debt service	13.0%	12.3%

Scenario narrative

Fiscal shift: A 3% reallocation of debt service toward primary care creates additional fiscal space for frontline delivery.

Health effect: Coverage improves by 2.8 percentage points, while resilience moves by 2.6 points.

Risk note: Donor dependency rises under this scenario, so implementation risk increases if external flows weaken.

Ministerial takeaway: For Mali, this scenario is most useful for discussing the trade-off between short-term fiscal stress and longer-term system resilience.